شبکه‌های بیزین، رویکردی نوین برای مدل سازی عدم قطعیت ها در مدیریت پروژه‌های ساخت

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین، ایران

چکیده

پروژه‌های ساخت با توجه به اینکه شامل ذی نفعان مختلفی هستند و در محیطی پویا انجام می‌شوند با عدم قطعیت‌های بسیاری روبه‌رو هستند. عدم قطعیت‌ها بر تمام جنبه‌های مدیریت پروژه تاثیر می‌گذارند. به همین دلیل مدلسازی عدم قطعیت در مدیریت پروژه چالشی همیشگی برای محققین بوده است. روش‌های پیشین بررسی عدم قطعیت در مدیریت پروژه(فازی، احتمالات تکراری و ...) نیاز به داده‌های مستند بسیاری برای مدلسازی و استنتاج دارند. در دسترس بودن این داده‌ها با توجه به ماهیت و تعریف پروژه(تلاشی موقتی و منحصر به فرد) امکان پذیر نبوده است. رویکرد نوین شبکه‌های بیزین با استفاده از منابع مختلف داده همچون قضاوت خبره و داده‌های ثبت شده چارچوب بسیار منعطفی برای مدلسازی عدم‌قطعیت ایجاد کرده است. مدیریت پروژه طبق استاندارد پم باک تعریف خاصی دارد و به حوضه‌های دانشی معینی تقسیم شده است. در این تحقیق کاربرد رویکرد نوین شبکه‌های بیزین برای مدلسازی عدم‌قطعیت در حوزه‌های دانشی پم باک به صورتی جامع بررسی شده است. به کمک این مرور و ویژگی‌های استخراج شده از مدل‌های پیشین خلا‌های موجود شناسایی و مسیر تحقیقات آینده بخوبی برای محققین قابل پیش بینی شده است. در برخی حوزه‌ها همچون زمان‌بندی، هزینه و منابع تحقیقات بسیاری با استفاده از شبکه‌های بیزین صورت گرفته ولی بر موضوعات مشابهی متمرکز بوده‌اند. در دیگر حوزه‌های مدیریت پروژه همچون مدیریت کیفیت، ذی‌نغعان، تدارکات تحقیقات بسیار کم صورت گرفته و یا در حوزه‌هایی همچون مدیریت یکپارچگی، گستره و ارتباطات هیچگونه تحقیقی با کمک این تکنیک صورت نگرفته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Bayesian network, a new method for modeling uncertainty in construction project management

نویسندگان [English]

  • Kiazad Abbasnezhad 1
  • Ramin Ansari 2
1 Master Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University (IKIU), Qazvin, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University (IKIU), Qazvin, Iran
چکیده [English]

As construction projects consist of different stake holders and operate in a dynamic environment encounter with many risks. Uncertainties affect all project management aspects. Because of that risk modeling in project management has been a big challenge for researchers. Classic methods of uncertainty modeling in project management (fuzzy, objective probability…,etc.) need a lot recorded data for modeling and inference. These data are not accessible every time. Bayesian novel method by participating several data source has made a flexible framework for modeling risks. Project management according to project management body of knowledge (PMBOK) has distributed to deterministic knowledge areas. In this paper application of Bayesian network approach for modeling uncertainty in project management knowledge areas has been reviewed and recent researches has been sorted. The way of future researches almost has been cleared. a b c d f e g h i j k o m n o p q r s t

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • risk
  • uncertainty
  • project management
  • Bayesian networks
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